How Thomas Friedman and Yuval Noah Harari Think About The Future of Humanity
Two of the greatest thought leaders of the 21st century– Yuval Noah Harari and Thomas L. Friedman – discuss the Future of Humanity on March 19, 2018, with moderator Rachel Dry, The New York Times. “How To Understand Our Times” is an event series collaboration between The New York Times and how to: Academy bringing together New York Times journalists and leading figures in diverse fields to examine pressing issues in a changing world, including gender equality, artificial intelligence, and alternatives to fossil fuels, among others. For upcoming events, visit timesevents.nytimes.com.
Transcript
Yuval Noah Harari of course is a
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best-selling author and thinker whose
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work engages us in the history of
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humanity and where we’re heading
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Thomas Friedman is also a best-selling
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author and columnist who for decades has
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been a guide to the world for readers of
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his columns and his books were in very
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good hands for the evening without
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further ado please welcome to the stage
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you’ve all her Aria and Thomas Friedman
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[Applause]
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so you’ve all we’re gonna begin with you
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obviously we think about the future we
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think about what’s happening in the
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world and what is setting the global
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agenda and if you could speak about the
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global agenda yeah I think the first
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thing to say about the global agenda is
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that it exists there is a global agenda
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which is not self-evident these days
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because with all the talk at least about
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the rise of nationalism and tribalism
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and the clash of civilizations and so
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forth we sometimes tend to forget that
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in a very deep sense all of humanity
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today constitutes a single civilization
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yes we have a lot of conflicts but every
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civilization every community every
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family has a lot of conflicts the people
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you fight most with are your family
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members not with strangers because they
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are there so the fact that the world is
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full of conflict doesn’t mean that we
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are not a single community or a single
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civilization and I think in a deep sense
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almost all humans today or at least
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almost all countries today understand
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the fundamentals of reality in the same
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way they understand politics in the same
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way if you think about China the USA
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Iran or Israel they understand the
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basics of politics in the same way the
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basics of economics in the same way and
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the basics of nature in the same way
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they argue about a lot of things but
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when it comes time to build a hospital
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or an economy or a nuclear bomb they do
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it in the same way and just as we have a
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set of similar ideas and practices we
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also all of humanity we have a set of
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common problems global problems
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can only be solved on a global level and
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of these global problems the three most
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important of nuclear war climate change
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and technological disruption now the
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first two are quite familiar by now the
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third technological disruption is the
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most mysterious most people don’t really
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understand what’s coming even most
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experts cannot really say what kinds of
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threats what kind of dangers the new
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technologies especially AI artificial
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intelligence and bioengineering will
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create there are a lot of scenarios
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scary scenarios like if you think about
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artificial intelligence so one scary
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scenario is that it will lead to the
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emergence to the rise of a global
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useless class just as the Industrial
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Revolution of the 19th century created
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the urban working class so the
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automation revolution of the 21st
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century might create the useless class
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and much of the political and social
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history of the coming decades might
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revolve around the problems and the
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hopes and the fears of this new class
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another danger is that new technologies
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might lead to the collapse of liberal
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democracy especially if you think about
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the combination the merger of biotech
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and Infotech they might very soon reach
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the point when they create systems they
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create algorithms that understand us
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better than we understand ourselves and
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once you have an external algorithm that
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understands you better than you
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understand yourself liberal democracy as
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we have known it for the last century or
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so is
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doomed it will have to adapt to the new
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conditions it will have to reinvent
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itself in a radical new form or it will
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collapse because you can say that the
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Achilles heel of liberal democracy is
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the heart liberal democracy trusts in
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the feelings of human beings and that
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worked as long as nobody could
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understand your feelings better than you
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yourself or your mother but if there is
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an algorithm out there that understands
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your feelings better than your mother
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and can press your emotional buttons
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better than your mother and you won’t
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even understand that this is happening
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then liberal democracy will become an
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emotional puppet show and we have these
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you know these slogans of listen to your
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heart follow your heart but what happens
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if your heart is a foreign agent is a
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double agent serving somebody else who
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knows how to press your emotional
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buttons who knows how to make you angry
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how to make you bold how to make you
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joyful this is the kind of threat that
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we are already beginning to see emerging
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today for example elections and
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referendums so really I would say that
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the three big challenges the three top
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items on our global agenda is how to
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prevent nuclear war how to prevent
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climate change and how to learn to
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control the new technology before it
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learns to control us thank you we think
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about the future we are the future of
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humanity we obviously have to think
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about our understanding
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of the world I wondered if you could
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talk a little bit about how you
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understand the world today
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well first of all Rachel’s great to be
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with you and devolopment thank you all
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for coming out this is a real treat so
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in my last you know as a columnist one
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of the things I’m always asking myself
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is um how does the Machine work what are
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the biggest gears employees shaping or
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reshaping the world today and in my last
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book thank you for being late I picking
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up really on some of the themes you’ve
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all spoke about I argued that what is
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shaping more things in more places in
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more ways on more days is that we’re in
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the middle three nonlinear accelerations
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with the three largest forces on the
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planet which I call the market mother
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nature and Moore’s law so a mother
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nature for me is climate change
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biodiversity loss and population growth
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in the developing world if you put that
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on a graph it actually looks like a
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giant hockey stick the market for me is
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globalization but not your grandfather’s
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globalization that was containers on
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ships and planes that’s actually flat to
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going down right now but digital
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globalization so everything’s being
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digitized and globalized put that on a
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graph whether it’s measuring data
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consumed per month or cellphones it
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looks like a hockey stick and lastly
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Moore’s Law coined by Gordon Moore in
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1965 the co-founder of Intel argued that
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the speed and power of microchips will
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double every 24 months it’s closer to 30
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months now but never mind Moore’s law
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has held up for 53 years put it on a
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graph it looks like a giant hockey stick
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so we’re actually in the middle of three
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hockey stick accelerations all at the
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same time and I believe it’s the
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interaction between them that really is
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not just changing our world it’s it’s
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reshaping our world and it’s reshaping
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five realms in particular politics
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geopolitics ethics the community in the
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workplace so as I think about politics
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right now that some of these on
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everybody’s mind you know one of the
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things you really see is that political
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parties all over the world here in the
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UK in the United States they’re blowing
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up some are in power so they think
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they’re alive but they’re all basically
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dead and that’s because they in my view
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they were all
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warned of an industrial age model that
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the central theme was capitalism versus
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labor or big government versus small
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government and the axis of politics was
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left to right and right to left um what
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I would argue and this is gets to how I
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think about the world today is that um
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that model is no longer relevant
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I think the way to think about politics
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today is through the model of climate
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change but I think we’re in the middle
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of three climate changes at once a first
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friend the change of the climate of the
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climate we’re going from what I call
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later to now so when I was growing up in
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Minnesota in the 50s and 60s later was
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when I could clean that Lake repair that
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River
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save that for us rescue that orangutan I
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could do it now or I could do it later
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well today later is officially over
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later will now be too late so whatever
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you’re gonna save please save it now
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that’s a climate change we’re going
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through a change in the climate of
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globalization I think we’re going from
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an interconnected world to an
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interdependent world and an
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interdependent world you get a kind of
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geopolitical invert inversion where
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you’re first of all your friends your
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friends start to be able to kill you
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faster than your enemies um you have
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Greek and Italian banks go under tonight
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this room is half-full a Greece Italy
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wait a min NATO there in the EU in an
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interdependent world they can kill us
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and an interdependent world your rivals
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falling is actually more dangerous than
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your rivals rising so if China take six
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more islands in the South China Sea
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tonight don’t quote me on this couldn’t
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care less
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um if China loses 6% growth tonight this
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room is empty
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that’s a climate change and lastly we’re
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going through a change in the climate of
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business and technology I’m a big
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believer that um one reason I focus on
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technology so much I’m a big believer
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that whatever can be done will be done
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the only question in business is will it
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be done by you or to you but just don’t
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think it won’t be done so I’m going to
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ask you what can be done and when you
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look at AI and some of the themes that
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you’ve all talked about I think every
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company they can therefore must analyze
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optimize
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sighs customize socialize and digitize /
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autumn Atty virtually any job product or
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service so they can analyze now thanks
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to big data they can find the needle in
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the haystack of their data as the norm
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not the exception they can optimize I
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flew here on British Airways rolls-royce
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engines those engines actually connected
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by sensor to rolls-royce and they could
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tell ba exactly what altitude to fly
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every mile to optimize their energy
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efficiency they can prophesize you may
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have seen the IBM Watson ad where the
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IBM Watson repairman comes to a
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high-rise building says I’m here to fix
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the elevator and the doorman says the
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elevators not broken and he says I know
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but it will be in six weeks two three
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days okay you can do predictive
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analytics on anything now you can
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socialize that is you could connect now
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to your customers your suppliers your
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employees on a horizontal way like never
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before
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you can customize just for guys from
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Minnesota with brown eyes and a mustache
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and you can digitize / autumn Atty
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virtually any job product or service you
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put all those together and every
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business today finds himself in the
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middle of the climate change so as I
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thought about that I thought well what
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do you want when the climate changes I
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think you want two things you want
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resilience maybe I’ll take a blow
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because you get disruptive behavior when
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the climate changes but you also want
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propulsion you want to be able to move
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ahead you don’t be curled up in a ball
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under your bed waiting for the climate
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change to pass so as I thought about
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that I said who do I go to to find how
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you get resilience and propulsion when
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the climate changes then I realize I
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knew this woman she was 3.8 billion
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years old
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her name was Mother Nature and she dealt
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with more climate changes than anybody
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so I called her up made an appointment
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went out to see her um and I sat down I
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said mother nature how do you produce
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resilience in propulsion and when the
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climate changes she said well Tom
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everything I do I have to tell you I do
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unconsciously but um these are my
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strategies um first of all she said I’m
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incredibly adaptive in my world it’s not
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the smartest that survive it’s not the
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strongest it’s actually the most
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adaptive that that bet survived and I do
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what she said through a rather brutal
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mechanism I call natural selection
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second she said I’m incredibly
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entrepreneurial where
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I see an opening in nature a blank space
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I fill it with a planter animal
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perfectly adapted for that niche third
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she said I’m incredibly pluralistic Oh
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Tom she said I’m the most pluralistic
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person you’ve ever met
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I tried 20 different species of
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everything see who wins and she did tell
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me something interesting she told me her
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most diverse ecosystems are her most
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resilient and propulsive ecosystems of
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course she told me she’s totally
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sustainable in a circular way everything
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is food eat food poop seed eat food poop
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seed nothing is wasted um v she said I’m
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incredibly high bred and heterodox in my
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thinking nothing dogmatic about me I’ll
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try any trees with any soils any bees
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with any flowers and lastly she did
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mention that she does believe in the
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laws of bankruptcy she told me she kills
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all her failures returns them to the
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great manufacturer in the sky and takes
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their energy to nourish her successes
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well my argument is that the community
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the country the government and the
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business that most closely mirrors
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mother nature strategies for building
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resilience and propulsion when the
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climate changes is the one that will
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thrive in this age of acceleration and
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since when I was writing my book it was
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the 216 election I actually imagine what
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if Mother Nature was running against
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Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016
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and so I created mother nature’s
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political party based on these
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strategies I won’t go into it I’m just
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close by saying that on some issues
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Mother Nature she’s out there on the
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left with Bernie Sanders um because she
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believes in universal health care and
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making lifelong learning completely tax
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free cuz she understands in this world
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that you vols describing it’s gonna be
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too damn fast for a lot of people so she
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wants to strengthen our safety nets to
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bounce people back into the game
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and protect him but at the same time
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mother nature would be out there on the
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right with the Wall Street Journal
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editorial page she’d actually be for
15:40
abolishing all corporate taxes only
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unlike our Republican Party she’d
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replaced them with a carbon tax a tax on
15:47
sugar attacks on bullets and a small
15:49
financial transaction tax she would get
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radically entrepreneurial over here to
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pay for our safety nets over here
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unfortunately in our old industrial age
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model of politics if you’re
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for stronger safety nets he almost never
16:03
for radical entrepreneurship if your for
16:05
radical entrepreneurship you’re almost
16:07
never for stronger safety nets what
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would mother nature call that stupid
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that’s what she’d call it because she
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would understand you will never produce
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resilience
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unless you’re a hybrid of these two and
16:20
because our current political parties
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are not built on that model I think
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they’re all struggling now to find a way
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to talk about politics we’d also be
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hearing from mother nature this evening
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so there’s the three of us on stage and
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a variety of perspective problems also
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not our problems as you mentioned she is
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quite keen on extinction and she does
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believe in that and she wouldn’t care if
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we are unable to cope with our problems
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and go extinct also she wouldn’t care
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very much if humankind splits and say a
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small percentage becomes a new species
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better adapted to the new conditions and
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a couple of billions just go in the way
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of the Neanderthals and the mammoths and
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all that so it’s very good to learn from
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mother nature but copying her methods
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too closely would be I think very bad
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news for a lot of people my you’ve
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always get the best out of her and
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cushion the worst because and I I do
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agree with you your mother nature my one
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of my science teachers talked about this
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that she just chemistry biology and
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physics that’s all she is
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you can’t talk her up you can’t talk her
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down can’t say mother nature were we’re
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having a recession this year could we
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take a year off on the climate um she’s
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gonna actually do whatever chemistry
18:05
biology and physics dictate and to put
18:07
it in American baseball terms mother
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nature always bats last
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and she always bats a thousand so do not
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mess with mother nature which is exactly
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what we’re doing
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I wonder where obviously I’m talking on
18:21
a long-term framework here but of course
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I imagine many of you came here tonight
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thinking about you know what’s
18:31
immediately in front of you
18:32
what news alerts are on your phones what
18:36
what tom I believe you’ve referred to
18:41
the American president as a brain-eating
18:43
disease perhaps what he might be up to
18:46
what else is going on both speak to how
18:50
we deal with what is unrelenting in
18:54
front of us while thinking about the
18:57
broader challenges that you’ve outlined
18:58
how do we do both at once how do we
19:00
adapt to do both at once first of all
19:05
can we have a bit more light on the
19:07
audience because it’s very difficult to
19:09
see who I’m talking to
19:10
it’s just a sea of darkness and it’s
19:13
nice to see some faces after all it’s
19:16
really about you not about us you will
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have to deal with the future also yeah
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it’s it’s very difficult for for people
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I mean humans have proven throughout
19:29
history that they are very good when it
19:32
comes to short-term problems and
19:35
solutions but it’s extremely difficult
19:37
to foresee the long-term consequences
19:40
and one of the things that happened if
19:42
we talk about then various climate
19:45
changes is that time is accelerating so
19:49
thousands of years ago something like
19:52
the Agricultural Revolution takes
19:54
centuries even thousands of years and
19:57
the consequences of our decision today
20:01
to start growing wheat we will see or
20:06
not we somebody our descendants will see
20:09
the consequences of these this decision
20:12
in a couple of centuries maybe even in
20:15
thousands of years but now time is
20:18
accelerating so the long term is not
20:21
2,000 years or 200 years the long
20:24
term is 20 years we are really in an
20:28
unprecedented situation in history when
20:31
nobody knows the basics about how the
20:35
world would look like in 20 or 30 years
20:38
not just the basics of geopolitics who
20:41
would be the big superpowers in 20 or 30
20:44
years or what will be the major
20:46
alliances in the world in 20 30 years we
20:50
don’t know much more basic stuff such as
20:53
what the job market would look like what
20:56
kind of skills people will need what
20:59
family structure would look like what
21:01
general relations would look like so
21:04
it’s really the first time in history
21:05
when we have no idea how human society
21:10
will be like in a couple of decades and
21:13
this means among other things that for
21:16
the first time in history we have no
21:18
idea what to teach in schools and so we
21:25
focus on the short term and not just on
21:28
the short term but actually we should
21:30
then go back and focus on the past
21:33
connecting to what you said about the
21:35
crisis of most political parties that
21:39
still think in terms of the 20th century
21:41
and right versus left and capitalism
21:44
versus socialism and all that I think
21:47
that politics and government in most of
21:49
the world today they are doing a far
21:51
better job than ever before in running
21:55
the day-to-day business of the of the
21:57
country it may not look like this but
21:59
I’m a medievalist so I constantly
22:02
compare the government of today to the
22:05
government of a doll the third or low
22:07
st. Louis or something like that and
22:09
it’s wonderful the world we’re living in
22:13
is really wonderful
22:14
so they are doing an excellent job in in
22:17
in the day to day business of the
22:19
country but what they have almost lost
22:22
completely is the ability to have a long
22:26
term plan for the future because they
22:30
can’t see they have no realistic vision
22:35
of against base
22:37
things like the job market in 30 years
22:39
so what you see in more and more
22:42
countries is that they look to the Past
22:45
instead of to the future and instead of
22:49
formulating meaningful visions for the
22:53
word humankind will be in 2050 they
22:57
repackage nostalgic fantasies about the
23:01
past and there is a kind of competition
23:04
who can look back farthest so you have
23:08
Donald Trump wanting to go back to the
23:11
1950s or something like that and you
23:14
have put in basically wanting to go back
23:17
to the Tsarist Empire a century after
23:20
the Bolshevik Revolution and you have
23:22
Isis that wants to go back to the
23:25
seventh century Arabia and in my country
23:27
in Israel they beat everybody they want
23:30
to go back 2500 years to the age of the
23:34
Bible so we win we have the Bell the
23:37
longest term vision backwards and this
23:43
is a as a historian I can tell you two
23:47
things about the past the past wasn’t a
23:50
very good time you don’t really want to
23:52
go back there and secondly it is not
23:56
coming back no matter what you do you
23:59
can’t bring it back and so we are facing
24:03
really a crisis of the inability of the
24:07
political system to produce meaningful
24:09
visions for the future maybe the only
24:12
place in the world where there is
24:15
serious work on producing a meaningful
24:18
vision for the future is in China
24:20
whether it’s a good vision or a bad
24:22
vision it’s a different question but
24:24
this is the one place I think where the
24:27
government is seriously thinking in
24:30
future terms and in long terms of
24:32
decades and not in terms of one or two
24:36
years and certainly not in terms of
24:38
going back decades and centuries so just
24:43
to pick up on what you’ve all said
24:45
Richie that we’re starting with Trump I
24:47
described Trump as a brain-eating
24:49
disease
24:50
because as a columnist you’re always in
24:53
this position everyday where he says or
24:56
does something so outrageous you feel if
24:58
you don’t write about it you’re
25:00
normalizing him but if you do write
25:02
about it he stoled your brains for a day
25:04
now if you do that twice a week four
25:07
times or eight times a month you’ll wake
25:09
up after a year and discover all you’ve
25:11
written about is that knucklehead and um
25:13
and he’s actually sucked your brains out
25:16
so it’s a real it’s a real challenge um
25:19
so you know my the subtitle of my book
25:22
is is an optimist guide to thriving in
25:24
the age of acceleration so everything’s
25:27
sped up and the reason it’s called thank
25:30
you for being late as the title comes
25:32
from meeting people in Washington DC for
25:34
breakfast over the years and every once
25:36
in a while someone would come 15 20
25:39
minutes late they say Tom I’m really
25:40
sorry it was the weather the traffic the
25:42
subway the dog ate my homework and um
25:44
one day three and a half years ago an
25:46
Energy entrepreneur Peter Carr cell came
25:48
three enough minutes 15 minutes late and
25:51
said I’m really sorry whether the
25:52
traffic the subway the dog ate my
25:53
homework
25:54
and I just spontaneously said to him
25:56
actually Peter thank you for being late
26:00
because you were late I’ve been
26:04
eavesdropping on their conversation
26:07
fascinating I’ve been people watching
26:10
the lobby fantastic and best of all best
26:15
of all I just connected to ideas I’ve
26:17
been struggling with for a month so
26:20
thank you for being late people started
26:24
to get into it they’d say well you’re
26:27
welcome because they understood I was
26:32
actually giving them permission to pause
26:33
to slow down in fact my favorite quote
26:35
from the front of the book is from my
26:36
teacher and friend of Simon who says you
26:38
know when you press the pause button on
26:40
a computer it stops but when you press
26:44
the pause button on a human being
26:45
it starts that’s when it starts to
26:49
reflect rethink and reimagine and boy
26:52
don’t we need to do a lot of that right
26:54
now now to pick up on you Vols point
26:58
about leadership when the world is fast
27:01
small errors in navigation
27:03
can have huge consequences when we just
27:06
needed to go fifty miles at five miles
27:09
an hour well if you had a bad president
27:11
or prime minister for governor or mayor
27:13
you’d get off track but the pain of
27:15
getting back on track was fairly
27:17
tolerable but when you need to feel like
27:20
you’re going fifty thousand miles at
27:22
five thousand miles an hour when you
27:24
have a bad leader now you can get so far
27:26
off track it’s like a 747 pilot just
27:29
changing two digits as he enters the
27:32
navigation of his jet and suddenly
27:34
you’re halfway across the world in the
27:36
wrong direction and so leadership really
27:40
matters more right now now I you know I
27:46
I think I would agree with with what
27:48
you’ve all said about China in this
27:50
sense I think China’s leaders do wake up
27:53
every day more than the average leader
27:55
in the world and start the day by asking
27:57
what world am i living in what are the
27:59
biggest trends in this world and how do
28:01
i align myself with those trends unlike
28:04
I think a lot of leaders in the world
28:05
but I would find I would tell you I’m
28:07
seeing amazing leadership in America
28:10
today in two places you’ve a one is at
28:13
the corporate level and the other is at
28:16
the local level so at the corporate
28:20
level as I think about the workplace
28:24
challenge the way I put it I think our
28:26
central challenge is how do we turn a I
28:27
into ia how do we take artificial
28:31
intelligence and turn it into
28:32
intelligent assistance ance intelligent
28:36
assistance a NTS and intelligent
28:39
algorithms so more people can learn
28:42
faster and govern smarter so I’ll give
28:45
you example of intelligent assistance um
28:47
that I use it’s the HR department
28:50
resources department at AT&T are giant
28:52
telecom so you know what’s interesting
28:55
on AT&T three hundred thirty thousand
28:57
employees in one of the most competitive
28:59
businesses and world global telecom
29:01
pretty good chance that whatever is
29:03
going on in their HR department is
29:05
coming to a neighborhood near you so
29:07
what’s going on in HR at AT&T well they
29:10
begin their year now where their leader
29:11
Randall Stephenson he starts the year
29:13
with a pretty radically transparent
29:14
speech about where the companies
29:16
going what businesses they’re gonna be
29:17
in and what skills you need as a worker
29:20
at 80 that year filters down through the
29:24
company then they put all their managers
29:26
a hundred ten thousand people on their
29:28
own in-house LinkedIn system so I’m
29:31
there it’s Tom Friedman you know and it
29:33
has my academic background and the jobs
29:35
I’ve had in the company then they match
29:37
that up with the skill sets I’m making
29:40
up the number cuz I don’t remember it
29:41
exactly but it’s probably ten skill sets
29:43
you need that year to be a rising
29:45
employee at AT&T they’ve got my CV
29:47
they’re on LinkedIn and they realize
29:49
I’ve got seven of the ten but I’m
29:51
missing three then they partnered with
29:53
Sebastian Thrun from Udacity the online
29:55
learning University and he created
29:57
nanodegrees for all ten skill sets then
30:00
they came to me and said Tom here’s the
30:03
deal um we will give you up to eight
30:06
thousand dollars a year to take the Nano
30:08
degrees for the skill sets you’re
30:09
missing that we heard that you’re
30:11
interested in computer science we just
30:13
created an online computer science
30:15
degree for six thousand dollars a year
30:16
with Georgia Tech fact we heard you’re
30:18
interested in history you can take an
30:21
online course from that guy yeah you’ve
30:22
all Hariri will pay for that as well
30:24
yeah just one condition mr. Tom you have
30:28
to take these courses at home at night
30:30
on your own time not on company time now
30:34
if I say to them you know what mr. AT&T
30:36
I’ve actually climbed up one too many
30:38
telephone poles I’m just not into this
30:39
anymore
30:40
um they now have a wonderful severance
30:43
package for me okay but I will not be
30:46
working there much longer
30:47
so they flush out now about thirty
30:49
thousand people they take in about
30:51
thirty thousand people they advance
30:52
about ten thousand every year
30:53
what is AT&T social contract today with
30:56
their employees it’s a you can be a
30:59
lifelong employee still today if you’re
31:01
at AT&T but now only if you’re a
31:03
lifelong learner
31:04
if you are not ready to be a lifelong
31:07
learner you can no longer be a lifelong
31:09
employee at AT&T and that is the social
31:12
contract coming to a neighborhood near
31:14
you and that’s why one of my teacher is
31:17
Heather McGowan there’s an education
31:19
expert and this picks up on something
31:21
that you’ve all said Heather likes to
31:23
say mom dad never asked your kids today
31:26
what you want to be when you grow up
31:28
because whatever it is not
31:29
be here unless it’s policemen or firemen
31:32
okay only ask your kid today how you
31:36
want to be when you grow up will you
31:38
have an agile learning mindset will you
31:39
be predisposed to be a lifelong learner
31:42
long after you’ve left home and mom and
31:44
dad are not there to say you’ve all have
31:46
you done your homework and that leads to
31:49
what I think is really roiling societies
31:51
today and and and you’ve all touched on
31:53
this with these people might be out of
31:55
work which is something I learned from
31:57
marina gorebyss who runs the institute
31:58
of the future if we were having this
32:00
conversation 15 years ago one of the
32:02
themes we’d be talking about is the
32:04
digital divide
32:05
you know London’s got Internet
32:06
Manchester dozen Europe’s got it Africa
32:09
doesn’t digital divide it was huge um I
32:11
believe that digital byte is rapidly
32:13
disappearing I don’t know when it’ll be
32:14
gone but I’m sure in a decade it’ll be
32:17
gone and when it is the most important
32:18
divide in the world is going to be the
32:21
self-motivation divide whose kids have
32:23
the self-motivation to be a lifelong
32:25
learner long after they’ve left home and
32:28
mom and dad are not there to ask them to
32:30
do their homework is what you learned in
32:31
your first year now could be outdated by
32:34
your fourth year of college the idea
32:36
that you can get a four-year degree
32:38
Undine out on that for 30 years is like
32:40
so 1950s and that that has a lot of
32:44
people really unnerved because a lot of
32:47
people were actually born and bred to do
32:49
what they were told and God bless and
32:51
they built your country in mind and you
32:52
Falls but just doing what you’re told
32:54
now will not bring you average income
32:57
and an average lifestyle and I think
32:58
that has a lot of people really
33:00
frightened I think what you’re
33:03
describing is extremely stressful I mean
33:07
I just hear you and you know there is so
33:11
much stress and reinventing yourself
33:16
again and again throughout your life
33:19
sounds terrible to most people because
33:24
you know when you’re 15 you’re 16 then
33:26
you’re inventing yourself and it’s still
33:29
stressful when you’re 15 but it’s still
33:31
doable when you reach 4050 you don’t
33:35
want to change yes I want to keep on
33:37
learning new things and to gain
33:39
experience and to go into new places and
33:42
so forth but
33:43
really change the deep structures of my
33:47
personalities of my professional skills
33:50
to learn things afresh it sounds you
33:54
know very exciting and then very like
33:56
good but it’s actually extremely
33:58
difficult and if this is what we are
34:02
heading and we are heading in the
34:04
direction we will be facing a stress
34:06
epidemic even far worse than then today
34:10
and then other things with all these
34:13
algorithms that again are watching us
34:15
all the time in our learning our
34:18
abilities and our problems and whether
34:20
we are self-motivated or not once the
34:23
algorithms reached the conclusion that
34:26
you are not going to make it you will
34:29
not go you will not be able to make it I
34:31
mean we are used to this problem of
34:35
discrimination against people based on
34:38
wrong statistics like in the 20th
34:41
century discrimination against people
34:44
usually took the form of discriminating
34:47
against entire groups based either on
34:51
faulty statistics or based on just
34:54
religious biases and racism and so forth
34:58
so as the world if you were gay you had
35:00
discrimination against all gays if
35:02
you’re a woman then all all women and
35:05
one of the things about it is that you
35:08
could actually do something about it
35:10
because most of the time the biases were
35:13
not true and because many people
35:16
suffered from them they could join
35:19
together and have some a political
35:21
action against the discrimination now in
35:25
the coming years in the coming decades
35:27
we will face individual discrimination
35:30
and it might actually be based on a good
35:33
assessment of who you are I mean if 88
35:36
NT if the algorithms and the big data
35:39
algorithms of AT&T they follow you
35:42
around they look up your Facebook
35:44
profile your DNA your records from
35:47
kindergarten until today they will be
35:51
able to figure out quite accurately who
35:53
you are and if they for example find out
35:56
that I lack
35:57
motivation on the on the X scale on the
36:00
Harare scale of the Freedmen’s scale of
36:02
motif of of self-motivation 0 to 10
36:05
he is just 7.1 and we don’t want to
36:09
accept to our company
36:11
people of less than 8.2 and we know from
36:16
experience that yes we can give you a
36:18
little push but you just lack what we
36:21
need and you will not be able to do
36:25
anything or almost anything about this
36:27
discrimination first of all because it’s
36:30
just you they don’t discriminate against
36:33
your me because you’re Jewish or gay or
36:35
black or whatever because you are you
36:37
and the worst thing is there will be it
36:41
will be true I mean they got me i I
36:45
really lack self motivation they really
36:50
got me so what do I do about it and it
36:54
sounds funny in a way but if you think
36:56
about it deeply it’s terrible everybody
36:59
on what everybody has something and you
37:04
will not be able to do much about it so
37:07
let me give you the flip side of that
37:09
because everything about these systems
37:11
you’ve all is everything and it’s
37:13
opposite so you you just described the
37:16
downside of that but let me talk about
37:19
intelligent assistant for a second
37:22
example I give him the book so the
37:23
example I use is on the janitorial staff
37:26
at Qualcomm big American tech company in
37:30
San Diego they have 64 billion building
37:33
campus they they built the inside your
37:35
iPhone not Apple that’s why Apple is
37:36
always suing them over patents and um
37:39
they three years ago they took six of
37:43
their buildings they put sensors on
37:44
everything every door window light pipe
37:47
faucet drain computer and they beamed
37:49
all that data up to the cloud and now
37:50
they beam it down onto an iPad with this
37:52
incredibly user-friendly interface for
37:55
their janitorial staff so if you leave
37:57
your computer on or a pipe bursts above
37:58
my head
37:59
the janitor knows it before you or I do
38:01
and they just swipe down to see who to
38:03
call or how to fix it themselves
38:05
they’ve actually turned their janitors
38:07
into
38:08
it’s technologists they’re janitors now
38:10
give tours to foreign visitors what do
38:13
you think that does for the dignity of a
38:14
janitor because he or she now has an
38:16
intelligent assistant enabling them to
38:18
learn you know faster and work smarter I
38:20
will give you another example
38:23
intelligent algorithm so um those of you
38:27
American students here know that an 11th
38:29
grade way to take the PSAT exam the
38:31
practice SAT exam to take the SAT exam
38:34
to measure our math and verbal skills to
38:36
get into the college of our choice so we
38:40
also know in America that a lot of
38:41
parents go out in 11th grade and hire a
38:43
tutor for $200 an hour to Goose your
38:45
scores in math and verbal a completely
38:48
rigged game because if you come from a
38:50
family or neighborhood where you can’t
38:52
afford that you’re really at a
38:53
disadvantage so three years ago
38:55
the College Board that administers the
38:57
PSAT and SAT exam your a-levels and
38:59
o-levels partnered with Khan Academy the
39:02
online learning platform to create free
39:05
PSAT and SAT prep so the way it works
39:08
now is I take my PSAT and 11th grade I
39:10
get the results back I did really well
39:13
in verbal it says Tom you you could be a
39:15
journalist actually um but um but it
39:18
says I have a problem with math it
39:20
actually says I Tom Friedman personally
39:23
because it knows me have a problem with
39:25
fractions and right angles then it takes
39:28
me to a practice site just for fractions
39:30
and right angles doesn’t waste any time
39:32
on my weaknesses if I do well there
39:35
takes me to another site that says Tom
39:36
you could be an AP math Wow you need to
39:39
be met I mean no one in my family is an
39:42
AP math no one in my neighborhood
39:43
yeah you could be an AP math if I do
39:45
well there text me another site with 180
39:47
college scholarships last year 3 million
39:51
American kids got free PSAT and SAT prep
39:54
on this intelligent algorithm and I’ll
39:57
give you another one that’s very
39:58
relevant to the point you raised
39:59
we have about 32 million people who
40:01
start a college but never finished they
40:04
go one year two years two and a half
40:05
three three and a half years they drop
40:06
out go to bite get a job or do it online
40:09
the algorithm says you have no BA no job
40:12
so a whole new set of intelligent
40:15
algorithms have emerged one eye profiles
40:17
opportunity at work so what they do now
40:19
is you can go to them with your
40:21
year two year two and a half of
40:22
knowledge they will badge what you
40:24
actually know and what you can do with
40:26
what you know and they partner with
40:28
companies to slot you in without a BA so
40:31
I profiled a young african-american
40:32
woman LaShonda Lewis
40:33
she went to Michigan Tech for three and
40:35
a half years studied computer science
40:37
had to drop out for family reasons she
40:40
went back home was driving a school bus
40:42
to and from a computer school couldn’t
40:44
make that up and working at a law firm
40:46
on the helpdesk helping lawyers
40:48
rediscover their lost passwords okay she
40:51
was discovered by opportunity at work
40:53
they partnered with MasterCard slotted
40:56
her in as a stay measured her knowledge
40:57
slotted her in as a systems engineer at
41:00
MasterCard she’s now a senior systems
41:02
engineer at MasterCard and as she says
41:05
in the last line of her interview and
41:07
mr. Friedman I still don’t have a BA so
41:11
that’s an intelligent help that’s the
41:13
other side of this and and what I found
41:16
is there is enormous innovation going on
41:20
on the other side of this you’re
41:22
absolutely right on the downside but for
41:24
every downside of this somebody’s
41:27
invented an upside I would just add one
41:30
other point you know what was the
41:32
fastest growing restaurant chain in
41:34
America according to Entrepreneur
41:35
Magazine in 2015 and you never guess it
41:38
it’s actually called paint nite fastest
41:41
burn restaurant chain in America what is
41:42
paint nite it’s paint by numbers for
41:44
adults and bars
41:46
turns out idols like to get together in
41:48
a bar have an artist draw a design for
41:50
them and they paint by numbers together
41:53
according to that design and have a
41:55
drink it’s amazing how many adults like
41:58
to paint by numbers in bars okay who
42:00
knew okay that is there all these jobs
42:04
out there and that’s why I would close
42:06
by saying if you really want to blow
42:08
your mind
42:09
go to Airbnb x’ website you’ll notice
42:12
now there are two icons on the front
42:13
page ones homes that’s because I’m
42:17
coming to London like my sister did this
42:19
week and I want to get an apartment here
42:21
you know we all know that but now the
42:22
other ones called experiences and click
42:26
if you want to have some fun
42:27
click experiences it’s people monetizing
42:31
their passions I will give you a tour of
42:35
three man basketball games in Havana at
42:37
night with a mojito at the end read that
42:40
one the American mother who said I send
42:41
my 18 year old on this he didn’t come
42:43
back till 2:00 in the morning he was
42:44
having so much fun I’ll teach you how to
42:46
make falafel you know in job I’ll teach
42:48
you how to make it you know this is it
42:50
full time employment maybe maybe not
42:52
it’s the fastest growing part of Airbnb
42:55
is website and I predict in five years
42:57
it’ll be the biggest job site in the
43:00
world people monetizing their passions
43:03
sticking with this theme we’ve been
43:05
talking a lot about individuality we’ll
43:07
be able to learn individually just how
43:10
unmotivated we are again perhaps
43:13
motivated to go paint plates by numbers
43:16
so we’ll know so much more about
43:19
ourselves as individuals how is that
43:21
going to affect how we all live together
43:24
Tom you’ve written about I believe you
43:26
called yourself a pluralism supremacist
43:28
how does increase knowledge it’s
43:31
increased knowledge of our individuality
43:33
exactly just how
43:35
well-suited we are for a job or poorly
43:38
suited for any job what does that mean
43:41
and how we all live together and and are
43:43
we moving more inward in this moment or
43:46
where do you see floral ISM going it’s
43:50
very hard to say I mean of course as you
43:52
said I mean every technology has good
43:55
potential and in bad potential this is
43:58
what is different about disruptive
44:00
technologies compared to nuclear war and
44:03
climate change nuclear war is this is
44:05
obviously terrible nobody nobody wants
44:08
it the question is just how to prevent
44:10
it with disruptive technology the danger
44:13
in a way is far greater because it has
44:16
some wonderful potential so there are a
44:18
lot of forces that for some very good
44:21
reasons are pushing us faster and faster
44:24
to develop and adopt these disruptive
44:28
technologies and it’s very difficult to
44:31
know in advance what the consequences
44:34
will be in terms of community in terms
44:38
of relations between people in terms of
44:40
politics 20 years ago in the high days
44:43
of internet optimism
44:45
you had all this extremely optimistic
44:48
and today we say naive dreams and
44:53
visions that the internet will bring
44:56
everybody closer together you could have
44:58
friends from all over the world in the
45:00
end there will be freedom of expression
45:02
and all the dictators will fall and the
45:05
world will turn into one big happy and
45:08
peaceful community and this didn’t
45:11
happen and we look back today and we say
45:14
oh this was extremely naive I mean if
45:17
people forget about human nature did we
45:19
learn nothing from history and the
45:22
answer is yes we learn very little from
45:24
history does it mean that every new
45:27
technology will just make things worse
45:30
no obviously not but it extremely
45:33
difficult to know which way it will go I
45:39
think that history is just not
45:41
deterministic and again when you look to
45:45
the past when you look at the 20th
45:46
century and what people could do with
45:50
new technologies and you could build you
45:53
can use the trains and radio to build
45:55
Nazi Germany or you could use the same
45:58
technology to build liberal democracy
45:59
and it’s it’s kind of touching goal who
46:04
wins I don’t think there is any
46:07
predetermined or preordained winner in
46:12
these competitions so again with AI we
46:16
can sit here all evening and a couple of
46:19
more evenings and spin all kinds of
46:22
likely scenarios which are all possible
46:25
what will happen some very good and some
46:28
very bad and some in between and we just
46:32
don’t know I think as a story in the the
46:37
best thing the most important thing we
46:40
need to realize is that there is no
46:43
predetermined
46:44
story which is in a way very frightening
46:47
and you know we are now living with the
46:53
collapse of the last story of
46:57
inevitability
46:59
and in the 1990s in the same era of the
47:04
extremely optimistic vision of the
47:07
internet we also had this story this
47:12
idea that history is over that we know
47:16
who won the great ideological battle of
47:20
the 20th century liberal democracy and
47:22
in free-market capitalism came out on
47:25
out on top and now it’s just a question
47:28
of time until it will spread and take
47:31
over the whole world and again this now
47:34
seems extremely naive and the moment we
47:39
are at now is a moment of extreme
47:45
disillusionment and bewilderment because
47:48
we have no idea where things will will
47:53
go from here this is why I think it’s
47:56
it’s very important to be aware of the
47:59
of the downside of the dangerous
48:02
scenarios of the new technologies I mean
48:06
obviously the the corporation’s the
48:09
engineers the people in the laboratories
48:11
they naturally focus on all the enormous
48:16
benefits that these technologies might
48:20
bring us and it folds to historians and
48:24
to philosophers and to social scientists
48:27
to think about all the ways in which
48:29
things can go wrong so when Frank
48:33
Okayama wrote the end of history I at
48:36
the same time wrote a book called Lexus
48:38
and the olive tree and the argument of
48:40
the book was that I think what is going
48:42
to shape the future is a tension between
48:44
all of these things that are old faith
48:47
community religion sect tribe all things
48:50
that anchor us in the world olive trees
48:52
and the interaction between them and
48:54
technology and I still believe that that
48:57
is that’s certainly for me a helpful
48:59
framework that it’s a because what we do
49:01
with those passions how we govern them
49:03
how we mobilize them it can be for good
49:05
or for ill and that for it for me
49:09
you know it’s a good segue to talk about
49:11
the ethics question and one you wrote a
49:14
whole book about Homo dias
49:16
you know so uh III just did a little
49:18
chapter on it and and let me give mine
49:21
and then you give yours because I think
49:23
to be an interesting contrast between
49:25
the two so my version of the argument
49:29
you made the chapter on it is called is
49:33
God in cyberspace he’s God in cyberspace
49:37
best question ever got on book tour 1990
49:41
I was selling Lexus the Ala tree in
49:42
Portland Oregon question time came young
49:44
man stood up in the balcony said mr.
49:46
Friedman I have a question he is god in
49:48
cyberspace I said I have no idea
49:59
I felt like an idiot so I got home I
50:03
called my spiritual teacher he was a
50:05
rabbi I got to know at the Hartman
50:06
Institute in Jerusalem when I was the
50:08
New York Times correspondent there great
50:09
tome u2 scholar three marks
50:11
now there’s an Amsterdam married to a
50:12
Dutch priest interesting character and
50:14
um I called him up in Amsterdam I said
50:19
see I got a question I’ve never had
50:20
before is God in cyberspace
50:23
what should I said and I he said well
50:26
Tom in our faith tradition we actually
50:28
have two concepts of the Almighty a
50:29
biblical concept and a post biblical
50:31
concept so the biblical concept is that
50:33
the almighty is almighty he smites evil
50:37
and rewards good and if that’s your view
50:39
of God he sure isn’t in cyberspace which
50:43
is full of pornography gambling cheating
50:44
lying people smearing one another and
50:46
Twitter and now we know fake news so um
50:49
fortunately though he said we have a
50:51
post biblical view of God and the post
50:54
biblical view of God is that God
50:55
manifests himself by how we behave so if
50:58
we want God to be in cyberspace we have
51:00
to bring him there by how we behave
51:02
there I really like this answer I put it
51:04
into the paperback edition of Lexus the
51:06
olive tree in 2000 where none of you saw
51:08
it and it sat there for 16 years
51:09
anyways I started working on this book
51:11
and I found myself
51:13
spontaneously retelling that story I
51:15
said why are you retelling that story
51:17
and it became obvious to me for two
51:18
reasons and one just happened I think in
51:21
the last couple of years in the
51:23
developed world we began living 51
51:25
scent of our lives in cyberspace it’s
51:28
not where you go to find a date find us
51:29
out spouse buy a house buy a car write a
51:31
book buy a book get a mortgage give
51:34
alone get your news generate your news
51:36
we’re now living do your banking your
51:38
brokerage we’re now living 51% of our
51:41
lives in cyberspace and my definition of
51:44
cyberspace is that it’s a realm where
51:45
we’re all connected and no one’s in
51:47
charge so there are no courts in
51:50
cyberspace no lovely ceman no stoplights
51:52
no no 1-800 please stop Putin from
51:56
hacking my election but that’s where
51:59
we’re living our lives another way to
52:01
describe it we’re living 51% of our
52:03
lives in a realm that is fundamentally
52:06
God free at the same time because of
52:09
these accelerations you and I both have
52:11
talked about I think we’re standing at a
52:13
moral intersection we have never stood
52:15
at before as a species in 1945 we
52:18
entered the world where one country
52:20
could kill all of us possi regime and
52:23
that was the United States I’m glad it
52:25
had to be one country but it was the
52:26
United States I think we’re entering a
52:29
world where one person can kill all of
52:30
us and at the same time at the same time
52:33
where all of us could actually fix
52:36
everything because these accelerated
52:38
powers for the first time are creating
52:40
world where one of us could kill all of
52:41
us and all of us now if we actually put
52:43
our minds to it we have the tools to
52:45
feed house clothe and educate every
52:48
person on the planet we have never been
52:50
to this intersection before where one of
52:53
us can kill all of us and all of us
52:54
could fix everything and what does that
52:57
mean means we’ve never been more godlike
52:59
as a species than we are today well put
53:02
those two together we’ve never lived
53:03
more of our lives in a realm that’s
53:05
Godfrey and we have never been more
53:08
godlike and what that means is that what
53:11
every person thinks feels and believes
53:13
really matters it means everyone needs
53:17
to be in the grip of sustainable values
53:18
it means at a minimum everyone needs to
53:22
be in the embrace of the Golden Rule and
53:24
every faith and culture has their
53:25
version of it doing to others as you
53:27
wish them to do unto you because you now
53:28
live in a world where more people can do
53:30
unto you farther faster deeper cheaper
53:33
than ever before Putin did unto us in
53:35
our election and we can do unto others
53:37
farther faster deeper cheaper than ever
53:39
for everyone needs to be in the embrace
53:42
of the golden rule I know what you’re
53:45
thinking actually gave this thing as a
53:48
commencement address at Olin College of
53:50
Engineering two years ago and I said to
53:52
the parents there I know what you’re
53:55
thinking
53:55
you paid two hundred thousand dollars
53:58
for your kid to get an engineering
54:00
degree and who do they bring us the
54:02
commencement speaker but a knucklehead
54:05
promoting the golden rule is there
54:08
anything more naive and what I told them
54:12
is what I would say again tonight I
54:14
think in this age of acceleration
54:16
naivete is the new realism because
54:19
what’s really naive is thinking we’re
54:21
gonna be okay in a world that is this
54:24
interdependent we’re men women and
54:26
machines get this super empowered if
54:29
everyone is not in the embrace of the
54:32
golden rule where does the golden rule
54:34
come from I think two places primarily
54:36
strong families and healthy communities
54:39
and that’s why my focus and my work
54:42
today is so much on healthy communities
54:45
but I would say that maybe the big
54:49
problem is not so much morality as it is
54:52
causality that we just cause a little I
54:57
mean the ability to understand the
54:58
change of causes and effects in the
55:00
world I think there is no lack of values
55:03
today in the world but to really act
55:07
well it’s not enough to have good values
55:09
you need to have a good understanding of
55:12
the chains of causes and effects like if
55:15
you think about the commandment like
55:17
don’t steal so okay let’s everybody
55:20
agree it’s not good to steal but the big
55:23
problem today is not that somebody says
55:25
hey I want to steal what will you do to
55:27
me
55:27
the big problem is that stealing has
55:30
become so complicated that I’m steaming
55:33
all the time and I’m not even aware of
55:35
it the commandment don’t steal was
55:39
formalized in an era when stealing meant
55:42
meant breaking myself I’m breaking into
55:45
somebody’s house and snatching some gold
55:48
coins or a goat or whatever and it was
55:51
easy – at least honest
55:52
what I’m doing and what the potential
55:55
consequences are for the owner of the
55:58
gold coins of the gold but how do I
56:01
still today well I put like ten thousand
56:04
and I have a pension fund and ten
56:07
thousand dollars out of my pension fund
56:10
are invested in some big oil corporation
56:14
or chemical corporation that brings
56:16
profits of say four or five percent
56:19
every years with a very good investment
56:20
and how does the corporation makes such
56:24
huge profits for example by dumping
56:27
toxic waste into a river and polluting
56:31
the entire water resources of the area
56:34
and hurting the health of the local
56:36
population and the wildlife and so forth
56:39
but the cooperation is so rich that it
56:43
can retain an army of lawyers that
56:46
protects it against all lawsuits and
56:49
also a small brigade of people in the
56:55
capital that block any attempt to have
56:59
stronger environmental regulations now
57:02
am i guilty of stealing a river I’m not
57:06
even a word that part of my pension fund
57:09
is invested in this cooperation and even
57:12
if I am aware I don’t know how the
57:15
cooperation makes its money it will take
57:18
me months maybe years to find out where
57:22
my money
57:23
what my money is doing and during that
57:26
time I will be guilty of so many other
57:29
crimes which I know nothing about and
57:32
the really the problem is that our sense
57:36
of morality our sense of justice like
57:39
our other senses was evolved in the
57:45
ancient African savanna when your
57:48
pension funds you had just one pension
57:50
funds which was your kids and you knew
57:53
what your pension fund was you was doing
57:56
it was playing in the mud or something
57:59
and so the entire the ability that the
58:04
problem is no
58:05
agreeing on basic morality the problem
58:10
is on understanding the extremely
58:12
complicated change of cause and effect
58:14
in the world and again my fear is that
58:18
maybe Homo sapiens is just not up to it
58:21
we have created such a complicated world
58:23
that we have no longer able to make
58:26
sense of what is happening and if I
58:30
looked at politics in the u.s. again
58:33
from the vantage point of a medievalist
58:36
Republicans and Democrats seems almost
58:39
identical I just don’t understand what’s
58:41
the difference
58:42
if you can enlighten me on this what’s
58:44
the big difference between them in
58:47
ethical in their ethical view in their
58:50
view of the world they have a big
58:52
difference in their understanding of
58:54
cause-and-effect relations but when it
58:56
comes down to two basic values I think
58:59
the difference is is not big but again
59:01
the problem is that maybe we are no
59:03
longer able like the engineers you gave
59:06
the talk to so they could all agree yes
59:10
we should keep the Golden Rule but then
59:13
when they go to design some I don’t know
59:15
bridge of software they don’t understand
59:19
what they are what are the consequences
59:22
of what they are doing so how can they
59:24
act morally without this understanding
59:27
well you just described why we need a
59:30
free press um I think that’s one roll
59:33
the free press really plays today and
59:37
again what’s the upside of this age of
59:39
acceleration is now an individual can go
59:42
take a picture of that waste dumping by
59:44
that factory put it up on the internet
59:47
and it’ll go around the world in in 30
59:49
minutes competing against funny cat
59:51
videos ah no actually if you’re in my
59:54
business you’ll find that if I take a
59:56
picture of General Electric doing that
59:58
and put it up on the New York Times a
60:00
General Electric will stop doing that I
60:02
can assure you that will not compete
60:03
with cat videos so there’s an upside to
60:06
all of these I think you’ve all that
60:08
that I’m gonna we’re playing a very
60:11
useful function here I’ll do the outside
60:12
and but but but what I your people ask
60:16
me what I do for a living
60:18
tell them I am a translator from English
60:19
to English that’s what I do I try to
60:22
take complex things and break them down
60:24
first so I can understand them and then
60:25
hopefully explain them to others and I
60:28
am really my motto I’ve adopted from
60:31
Marie Curie who once said now is the
60:33
time to understand more so we may fear
60:36
less and now it’s truly I this is never
60:40
good journalism I think that practice by
60:43
the New York Times and many others has
60:46
never been more important to understand
60:49
more so people will fear less because we
60:51
now have a president who is actually in
60:53
the fear business backed up by a Pravda
60:56
like Network called Fox television
60:58
that’s in the business of making people
61:00
stupid and you put those two together
61:03
you know it’s really dangerous and and
61:06
the good news is we are finding at the
61:09
New York Times more people that we know
61:11
Donald Trump toys clients are failing
61:13
New York Times I assure you we are
61:15
anything but that today because so many
61:17
people are coming to not just the New
61:19
York Times but to trusted new sites
61:22
because they want to understand more so
61:23
they may fear less and and so many
61:27
individuals now can go out and actually
61:30
you know be citizen journalists like
61:33
never before and I would say this the
61:37
political side of that is that you know
61:40
so which like if you want to be an
61:45
optimist about America today I tell
61:47
people stand on your head because the
61:49
country looks so much better from the
61:51
bottom up than the top down okay so I
61:54
think that as we go into this age of
61:56
acceleration national governments with a
61:59
few exceptions are really too slow
62:02
certainly the big democracies are
62:04
because we’re too tribal eyes partisan
62:05
eyes now they they can’t move at the
62:07
pace of change because government moves
62:09
at the pace of trust and there’s no
62:10
trust the single individual single
62:13
family way too weak against these forces
62:16
so I think it’s the healthy community
62:19
that is going to be the proper of
62:21
governing unit of the 21st century and
62:23
if you want to know what makes me an
62:25
optimist in America is that our country
62:28
you know the cliche about America is
62:30
that we’re divided by two
62:32
so these two coasts everyone is
62:34
pluralizing diversifying globalizing and
62:36
modernizing and in between them is
62:38
flyover for America where everyone’s
62:40
high on opioids voted for Trump and
62:43
waiting for 1950 okay that’s kind of the
62:45
cliché so um well you only have to be
62:48
from Minnesota you only have to be from
62:49
flyover America – no that is not true
62:51
America is actually a checkerboard today
62:54
of communities that are collapsing from
62:57
the bottom down and communities that are
62:59
rising from the bottom up so I did a
63:02
trip a year ago to um I was invited to
63:05
give a talk at our national lab at Oak
63:07
Ridge Tennessee so I got the map out Oak
63:08
Ridge Tennessee
63:09
hey it’s down here southern tip of
63:11
Appalachia haven’t been to Appalachia I
63:13
think I’ll do a car trip across
63:15
Appalachia reading about all these
63:16
people voted for drum so I started the
63:19
trip in Austin Indiana so it’s a
63:21
southern Indiana northern tip of
63:23
Appalachian I went to excite read about
63:25
the town 4400 people and a 5% of the
63:28
town is HIV positive which is just the
63:33
worst possible levels of epidemic you
63:35
can imagine what was the story two
63:36
factories in the town one closed the
63:38
other got automated a lot of white
63:40
working-class men and women got
63:41
unemployed very quickly um
63:44
the they couldn’t adapt and I fell into
63:46
drug use and you had son father
63:49
grandfather all shooting up together
63:51
it’s a terrible store and I went there
63:53
to interview the one doctor in the town
63:54
then I got on my car and drove 40
63:57
minutes south on i-70 to Louisville
63:59
Kentucky Louisville Kentucky has 30,000
64:02
open jobs anybody looking for a job
64:04
Louisville Kentucky so what’s going on
64:07
there so which organisms thrive when the
64:10
climate changes they call complex
64:12
adaptive organisms what’s happening at
64:15
the community level the commutes that
64:16
are rising they’re creating complex
64:18
adaptive coalition’s and what you see in
64:21
Louisville and I can show you
64:23
communities all over the country these
64:25
complex adaptive coalition’s you have
64:27
the business community you’re not
64:28
plugging directly into the public school
64:31
system k12 community college four-year
64:33
college translating in real-time their
64:36
skills needs and demands okay not
64:38
waiting for the schools to figure it out
64:40
then you have the philanthropic
64:41
community
64:42
coming in supplementing it with
64:44
scholarships after-school programs
64:46
supplemental learning opportunities then
64:48
you have the local government catalyzing
64:51
at all and hiring global recruiters to
64:53
go into the world and find global
64:55
investors for their local attributes so
64:58
in the case of Louisville Louisville
64:59
happens to be the capital of Bourbon
65:01
tourism so Louisville is de Bourbon what
65:04
Napa Valley is – red wine and they’re
65:06
now distilleries and bed-and-breakfast
65:07
you go you know across just they’ve
65:10
created a tourism industry Louisville
65:12
happens to be the headquarters of ups so
65:14
you fly into Louisville Airport all you
65:16
see are factories everywhere because
65:18
when Jeff Bezos of Amazon com says
65:21
you’ve all get to that product in 24
65:23
hours it’s because he’s doing end of
65:24
runway assembly and manufacturing now in
65:27
Louisville and Louisville is a
65:29
headquarters of Humana wellness company
65:31
so the mayor’s equipped any young person
65:33
in the town who wants with a web
65:35
neighbor cloud connected breathalyzer
65:37
and kids got in the morning trying to
65:39
create citizen scientists and they map
65:41
the air quality in their neighborhood
65:43
and they feed it all into a website in
65:44
the city they’ve created a complex
65:46
adaptive coalition and this is happening
65:49
all over the country and so we’ve got
65:53
communities like Austin that opioid
65:55
crisis is real they’re collapsing but
65:57
those were you get this leadership
65:59
together are creating complex adaptive
66:01
coalition’s come to my hometown of
66:03
Minneapolis two and a half percent
66:05
unemployment I mean really thriving
66:07
they’re not waiting for Washington DC
66:09
because there’s a much higher trust
66:11
there and my my teacher Duff Seidman
66:14
always says you know Trust is the only
66:16
legal performance-enhancing drug okay so
66:19
where there’s trust in the room you can
66:21
go really fast you can go at the speed
66:23
of visits and when there’s no trust like
66:25
in Washington DC right now you can’t
66:27
move two inches so how do you make sense
66:30
of this extremely complex and checkered
66:34
reality I mean my job is much easier
66:36
than yours because as a historian who
66:39
looks mainly the past and also at long
66:41
periods of centuries and thousands of
66:44
years so the like that the main trains
66:47
jumps jump at you yeah but how do you
66:50
manage to make sense of such a
66:53
complicated and contradictory
66:55
reality and how do you know that you’re
66:58
not just you know following your biases
67:01
and seeing what you want to see so it’s
67:04
a combination it’s a very good question
67:05
of data I mean I can show you the
67:11
employment statistics you know the
67:13
economies of these towns and I can show
67:15
you the proliferation of them and then
67:19
obviously reporting and then anything is
67:22
going to be a guess you know but if I
67:24
look at the country I see the National
67:26
Statistics what’s going on to me the
67:29
question is and this I can’t do I can
67:32
only report on what’s going on is what
67:36
is the balance between these two trends
67:38
but as I’m not a historian I’m a
67:41
journalist what I’m trying to do is by
67:42
highlighting the positive trend because
67:45
I think one good example is worth a
67:47
thousand theories that people will
67:49
follow examples when they see people
67:51
like them doing it so my idealism is to
67:55
say here’s what’s working you know and
67:58
these people are just like you so you
68:00
can do it just like them I Israeli
68:03
general loozy Diane you know once said
68:05
to me Tom I know why you’re an optimist
68:08
I said why he said it’s because you’re
68:11
short and I said I’m not that sure he
68:15
said you can only see the part of the
68:17
glass that’s half-full okay so um I’m
68:20
actually not that short but I I do
68:24
believe in the Emil Evans the physicists
68:29
who helped me with all the physics in my
68:30
book you vote he likes to say when
68:33
people say Aimee are you an optimist or
68:35
a pessimist says I’m neither because
68:37
they’re just two different forms of
68:38
fatalism everything will be great
68:40
everything will be awful he said I
68:41
believe in applied hope don’t know if
68:45
it’s gonna work but I believe in applied
68:46
hope yeah I’m very interested in how you
68:49
ball has interrogated your optimism and
68:51
optimism of course it’d be the natural
68:53
note to end on but I want to care a tiny
68:55
bit more about your pessimism and
68:58
hopefully we can all think about how to
69:01
walk out of here holding both of those
69:03
ideas in our mind you wrote in sapience
69:05
I believe that there’s no
69:07
that I’m sorry I have no proof human
69:09
well-being inevitably improves as
69:12
history rolls along just a cheery
69:14
thought for all of us as we wind down
69:16
our time together
69:18
I wonder if you could help us think
69:21
about that what you’ve discussed this
69:22
evening and and Tom’s very convincing
69:26
data rich argument that when you’re
69:29
doing yoga and standing on your head you
69:31
really can see roots of communities
69:33
pulling together even in this
69:35
disorienting moment so help us leave
69:37
here both pessimists and optimists well
69:43
I try not to think in terms of pessimism
69:46
and optimism
69:49
it’s just that history just doesn’t
69:52
unfold in such a way usually you have
69:56
terrible things and wonderful things
69:58
happening at the same time maybe in
70:00
different places but happening at the
70:01
same time usually the same revolution
70:04
the same development it’s very rare when
70:07
you have a big revolution in history
70:09
which is doing only good or which is
70:11
doing only bad and of course you have
70:13
the added problem that those who lose
70:17
who lose the most and those who get
70:20
extinct and those who disappear they are
70:23
not there to tell their story
70:25
so in history there is always a certain
70:27
a certain bias towards the optimistic
70:30
side here we are here so it couldn’t
70:32
have been that bad the people for whom
70:36
it was very bad they are just not here
70:41
but you know so and also is as somebody
70:52
who tries to see the big picture and
70:55
look at the global picture there is
70:57
always the danger that you’re always
71:01
going to notice the agenda and the
71:06
opinions and the interests of the of the
71:10
hegemonic powers of the more powerful
71:12
people and societies and in classes and
71:15
whatever because they dominate
71:18
the conversation so even if you oppose
71:21
them even if you think you’re they’re
71:23
wrong you’re not going to miss their
71:26
ideas you might object their ideas you
71:30
might fight against them but you’re not
71:32
going to ignore them the problem of the
71:36
people who are like push to the side or
71:38
push down is that they are very often
71:42
just ignored not that you don’t agree
71:45
with what they say not that you think
71:47
their interests don’t count you just
71:50
don’t remember to even notice their
71:55
point of view or there are other
71:58
interests so also the question of of
72:01
pessimism and optimism it’s always a
72:04
question of who are you talking about I
72:07
think one of the main problems in
72:11
talking about the global agenda or the
72:15
problems of humanity or and the kind of
72:17
things that are that I try to doom is
72:20
that maybe there is no single future for
72:25
the whole of humankind
72:26
maybe the basic understanding of the
72:31
world is just that different groups are
72:34
going to have very different futures
72:37
maybe I mentioned earlier the question
72:40
of what to teach your kids so if you
72:43
live in one place and belong to a
72:46
particular community or to a particular
72:48
group so you teach your kids to be
72:51
resilient and you teach your kids
72:53
computer code and you teach your kids to
72:56
play the violin and you live in another
72:59
place maybe not very far away and the
73:01
best thing to teach your kids is how to
73:04
shoot a Kalashnikov and it’s happening
73:08
on the same on the same planet at the
73:10
same time and what’s more true or what’s
73:14
more important it’s it’s it’s kind of an
73:17
empty question it really boils down to
73:20
the question of perspective so this I
73:26
think is kind of a historical low or an
73:28
historical truth that there
73:31
never just a single story going around
73:35
and part of the responsibility part of
73:39
the difficulty I think of being a
73:42
journalist or being a historian is how
73:45
do you bring at least some justice to
73:49
this situation and how do you give at
73:52
least some attention to all the
73:55
different viewpoints and not just to the
73:57
to the dominant one um before you go
74:01
close you will just talk a little bit
74:04
about your next book and give us a
74:05
little tease I want to hear I’m gonna be
74:07
very sad for a second and then I’ll do
74:10
my so my next book is coming in August
74:15
September
74:16
it’s called 21 lessons for the 21st
74:19
century but it’s not really a book of
74:22
concrete lessons like do this go there
74:24
whatever it’s more an invitation to take
74:30
part in the major debates and
74:33
discussions of the world of the current
74:36
moment continuing what I said earlier I
74:40
think one of the problem problems that
74:43
most people today face is that they just
74:49
don’t have the time and the energy to be
74:52
part of the global debate of the debate
74:56
about the future of humanity there are
74:58
all these big questions of climate
75:02
change and artificial intelligence and
75:04
bioengineering and it’s going to have an
75:07
impact on the life of every single
75:10
individual on the planet but most people
75:13
they’re too busy going to work and
75:17
feeding their kids and taking care of
75:21
elderly parents and so forth they just
75:23
don’t have it’s a luxury to be able to
75:27
think about these issues to investigate
75:30
them to engage in the debate and the
75:34
problem was in one of the problems again
75:36
with history is that history never makes
75:40
any concessions and never gives any
75:43
discounts
75:44
just because you’re in difficulty oh
75:47
just because you’re poor or just because
75:50
you’re too busy taking care of your kids
75:53
if you don’t have the time and the
75:56
energy and the really the luxury to be
75:59
part of the debate it doesn’t mean that
76:03
you won’t suffer from the consequences
76:07
because in in this sense history’s
76:09
completely unfair and I see my job as a
76:15
historian as trying to help at least a
76:19
few more people take part in the debate
76:23
and this is the main purpose of the
76:27
coming book so I guess I see my job is
76:31
obviously you know reporting whatever
76:34
situation I’m assigned to report to but
76:36
I am always looking for examples of
76:39
what’s working and sharing them with
76:41
people so so because I think there’s a
76:44
power in that and that’s my version of
76:46
idealism it’s why I went into journalism
76:48
young people often come to me say I want
76:50
to do what you do you know what do I
76:53
need to know and you know I say you
76:57
build a type fast I can type real fast
76:59
um actually went to London secretarial
77:01
school to learn how to type back in on
77:03
my day here but I think that the most
77:06
important thing you need is a journalist
77:10
today is that you have to be a good
77:16
listener and for two reasons and the
77:18
second reason is more important than the
77:20
first the first is what you learn when
77:23
you listen you know but the second
77:26
reason is what you say when you listen
77:28
listening is a sign of respect and my
77:31
method to my madness if you travel with
77:34
me is I really do try to listen to
77:36
people whether on you know a little
77:39
Jewish guy from Minnesota in the Arab
77:40
world or I’m in Russia or I’m here
77:43
because I find that if you just listen
77:47
to people it’s amazing what they’ll let
77:50
you say back and if you don’t listen to
77:52
them it’s amazing you cannot tell them
77:55
it’s dark outside
77:56
and that’s why I’ve often said um before
77:59
I retire I’m gonna change my business
78:01
card it now says Thomas L Friedman New
78:03
York Times Foreign Affairs columnist and
78:05
I want to change it to Thomas L Friedman
78:07
New York Times humiliation and dignity
78:10
correspondent because I basically spent
78:12
my whole career covering people acting
78:14
out on their humiliation whether it’s in
78:16
the Middle East you know we all know the
78:19
stories they’re Russians feeling
78:20
committable Chinese you know and
78:21
questing for for dignity but I may add
78:26
also diversity correspondent and that’s
78:29
where I would end you know Rachel too
78:35
you know as a columnist sometimes you’re
78:37
in the right place at the right time and
78:39
sometimes you’re in the wrong place at
78:42
the wrong time especially when you’re a
78:44
once a week columnist as I am now
78:46
so less summer the head of the US Air
78:48
Force invited me to join him on a tour
78:50
of all America’s air bases in the Middle
78:53
East it’s a great opportunity to see
78:56
this perspective of the world in the
78:58
military and I found myself an Altoid
79:01
aid air base in Qatar the night Donald
79:05
Trump was giving his press conference
79:07
about the charlottesville disturbances
79:11
and talking about how there were good
79:13
white supremacist and bad white
79:15
supremacist and like that’s all the
79:18
world or in America was talking about
79:20
and I was in a load eight airbase at
79:23
Qatar and my column was due in a few
79:25
hours so I staring at a blank blank
79:28
screen thinking about what do I write
79:32
and then it just popped into my head I
79:35
looked around at my traveling party the
79:39
head of the US Air Force Dave goal find
79:41
his Jewish we are traveling with the Air
79:43
Force US Air Force secretary she’s a
79:45
woman Heather Wilson her chief executive
79:48
officer is an African American woman Air
79:51
Force lieutenant colonel there guards
79:53
name was one the head of the air base
79:56
and it was in Armenian American his
79:58
deputy was a lebanese american and our
80:00
intelligence briefers name was yang mr.
80:04
trump which part of this sentence don’t
80:07
you understand
80:08
okay that that is the real strength of
80:12
America our ability to make out of many
80:15
one you know and in a world where we’re
80:19
all getting so mixed up now I believe
80:23
that virtue that strength is so
80:24
important for every society now it’s
80:27
more important than ever and so I pray
80:31
this man will be a one-term president
80:33
because we can take four years of him we
80:37
cannot take eight years of him he will
80:39
destroy institutions in eight years but
80:42
I know that underneath you know there’s
80:47
still a really powerful idea of America
80:50
and diversity out there that I think
80:54
even Donald Trump cannot crush and
80:56
that’s why I is it shared also by the
80:59
average Trump voter I mean are you able
81:02
also to listen to them and I don’t think
81:05
there is an average Trump voter and I
81:07
think that because I think people came
81:09
to him for so many reasons
81:10
some people came because they were
81:12
humiliated Hillary Clinton said you’re
81:14
deplorable
81:14
I’m deplorable that I’m gonna wear a
81:16
t-shirt that says I’m a deplorable okay
81:18
some came because things you’ve talked
81:20
about you’ve all they want a wall to
81:22
stop the pace of change some came for
81:25
many reasons but my way of approaching
81:27
them because I’m a Wednesday columnist
81:29
it means I write Tuesday for Wednesday
81:31
means I have the first column after
81:32
every election hmm so I had the column
81:36
then I from one and I’m sorry the week
81:40
before he won I wrote my last column and
81:43
it was addressed to Trump voters and it
81:46
began dear fellow Americans treat people
81:49
with respect it’s amazing you know if
81:52
you start there how much you can peel
81:56
peel back you know just listen to people
81:59
and we have so many people broadcasting
82:01
now you know and not listening
82:04
particularly in politics that I think
82:09
that that’s truly the
82:12
optimism so I don’t feel we should go
82:13
too deep into the 26 women yes well to
82:19
comment actually about it one I think
82:21
that I mean the the Trump voters of
82:25
still the future of America I mean if
82:27
you don’t have them then America is
82:30
going nowhere so if you need to be
82:33
optimistic about something then you need
82:35
to be optimistic about about them as
82:37
well that I think they’re they’re all
82:40
people that you could take somewhere
82:42
with a different message not all but
82:44
many of them and secondly I would say
82:49
about about journalism I agree that it
82:55
is immensely important especially today
82:59
especially for the viability of liberal
83:02
democracies because you know democracy
83:06
is to some extent based on Lincoln’s
83:09
maxim that you can fool some people some
83:13
of the time all the time and you can
83:14
fool all the people some of the time but
83:16
not all the people all the time and this
83:19
is really just wishful thinking you can
83:22
fool people I mean not for eternity
83:24
nothing is for eternity but you can fool
83:27
all the people for a very very long time
83:29
and the the way to do it is to control
83:34
the information they get with the basic
83:37
idea of democracy is ok we elect a bunch
83:39
of people to govern the country and if
83:42
they do a bad job if they fail then
83:45
sooner or later enough people will
83:48
realize it and they will change the
83:50
government and this works fine as long
83:54
as you have free press and free
83:56
journalism if the government controls in
83:59
some way or the other
84:00
directly or indirectly if it controls
84:03
the media if it controls journalism then
84:06
it can always blame somebody else for
84:09
its failures it can always direct the
84:12
attention towards all kinds of enemies
84:15
either real or imaginary and there will
84:19
never be a day of reckoning so in in
84:23
this
84:23
there is no future to democracy without
84:27
a strong and free journalism I think yes
84:33
journalism
84:44
I was gonna say on behalf of the New
84:47
York Times a rousing defense of a strong
84:50
and free press works in very nicely to
84:53
remind you that we were here heard this
84:56
evening putting on this event
84:57
what a luxury called it to engage in
85:00
this debate and and to listen as Tom
85:03
described is so important as we do
85:05
figure out and make our way toward the
85:07
future we are going to call in an
85:10
evening here I want to thank all of you
85:12
for joining us thank the New York Times
85:14
and how to academy for putting a loss
85:16
event and please of course thank you of
85:18
all Harare and Thomas Friedman
85:21
[Applause]
85:23
[Music]
85:24
[Applause]
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