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Two decades later, Joe Biden, now president-elect, sounds less like he wants to be friends with China and more like he’s ready for a new Cold War. During his campaign, Biden called China’s leader, Xi Jinping, a “thug.” He threatened economic sanctions. He wrote in a piece in Foreign Affairs that the United States needs “to get tough on China.” The bipartisan consensus to bind China and America together created one of the most remarkable economic engines the world has ever seen, but there seems to be a growing consensus to dismantle that engine. Or at least, take it to the mechanic for a serious rebuild.
If Biden talked about China in 2020 like he did back in 2000, he might have lost the election. Three-quarters of Americans now have an unfavorable view of the country; up from about a third in the early 2000s. China, which has an economy twelve times larger than it was in 2000, is now a boogeyman. Trade with China may have slashed costs for American consumers and created countless new jobs in various sectors, but — as organized labor warned back in 2000 — it also destroyed huge numbers of blue-collar jobs. Economists David Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon Hanson estimate that China’s joining the WTO killed about 2.4 million American jobs, including about a million in manufacturing.
And far from becoming a friendlier, more democratic, rule-following nation — which Biden and other American leaders hoped would happen after China got let into the WTO — China has gotten even more despotic. Add in a global pandemic that began in its heartland and spread on its watch, and it’s easy to see why China’s popularity is plummeting, not just in the US, but in nations around the world.
The question now is what President-Elect Biden will do about it. His predecessor levied hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs on Chinese products and tried to hinder its technological advances by, for example, forcing tech firms like TikTok to sever ties with a Chinese owner or else close up shop in the U.S. (imperiling Planet Money’s pretty awesome TikTok account). But, despite the Trump administration’s actions, China’s rise continues. And they may have even created a US leadership vacuum in Asia that helped China.
Last week, China signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). Eight years in the making, the RCEP is maybe the world’s largest free trade deal in history. It includes China, Japan, South Korea, ten Southeast Asian countries, and New Zealand and Australia — which together account for almost a third of the world’s population and economy. While there’s a debate about how economically important the deal is, most analysts agree the RCEP is a huge geopolitical win for China — solidifying it as the foundation of a regional industrial complex that continues to be one of the most powerful economic forces in the world.
The genesis of this deal can be traced back to actions that Biden and the Obama administration took back in the early 2010s. They spearheaded the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which was explicitly designed to exclude China and promote American hegemony in Asia. RCEP emerged as a China-friendly alternative. Biden, as vice president, was a major proponent of TPP. “Our goal is to help tie Asia-Pacific nations together — from India to the Americas — through strong alliances, institutions and partnerships,” he said in a 2013 speech.
Even back then, Biden and Obama’s geopolitical strategy was in tension with a growing trade skepticism in both parties. Many saw TPP as another free-trade deal that would help multinational corporations at the expense of blue-collar workers, making it unpopular. Even Secretary Hillary Clinton opposed the deal as she ran for president in 2016. Donald Trump pulled the US out of TPP as soon as he assumed office. The other national signatories of TPP continued on anyway and signed it into law. Now some foreign policy folks are arguing that rejoining the trade pact is the easiest way for President-Elect Biden to counter RCEP and reassert America in the region. Since he spent years fighting for that strategy, Biden probably still likes that idea. But TPP remains unpopular, especially among labor unions, progressives, and Trump supporters.
Asked about the RCEP last week, President-elect Biden said that America needs to ally with other democracies “so we can set the rules of the road.” Otherwise, he said, “China and others dictate outcomes because they are the only game in town.” He seemed to keep the door open to a TPP-style trade agreement, but he stressed that America would first have to invest in making its workers competitive and bringing labor unions and environmentalists to the table. It was a bit of double-speak, offering bones to both pro and anti-trade constituencies. He was light on specifics.
With RCEP and about $360 billion worth of President Trump’s annual tariffs still remaining on Chinese goods, Biden will soon have some big decisions to make. “I promise you I have a pretty thorough plan, and I will be prepared to announce that to you on Jan. 21,” Biden said.
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